* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/29/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 50 57 58 61 65 70 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 50 57 58 61 65 70 72 SHEAR (KTS) 20 17 9 15 18 7 11 10 14 10 12 11 13 SHEAR DIR 263 273 256 233 254 224 225 187 211 203 211 207 238 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 155 157 157 157 157 157 155 155 155 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 13 12 13 13 13 13 500-300 MB RH 47 48 51 50 47 53 46 45 41 43 41 42 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 3 0 4 7 0 -1 1 1 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 28 30 55 56 46 34 -4 -18 -29 -7 -12 3 -14 LAND (KM) 525 394 264 156 87 188 223 290 327 355 366 378 347 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.0 20.2 21.3 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 60.8 62.0 63.2 64.3 65.3 67.2 68.6 69.6 70.3 71.0 71.7 72.4 73.3 HEAT CONTENT 89 78 78 79 71 67 73 58 50 49 46 43 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 816 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 19 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 24. 31. 33. 36. 41. 46. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 25. 32. 33. 36. 40. 45. 47. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/29/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.35 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 4.25 Prob of RI= 14.7% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)