* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * MATSUDA 07/29/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 93 83 73 63 46 33 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 93 83 73 63 46 33 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 35 36 34 36 37 40 43 40 41 42 40 31 31 SHEAR DIR 221 225 225 226 224 226 223 233 231 233 237 251 262 SST (C) 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 126 126 126 128 132 136 137 136 135 136 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -55.3 -55.5 -56.3 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 500-300 MB RH 26 25 26 24 24 23 25 23 24 28 27 31 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 16 5 22 1 -5 7 27 2 0 21 0 -7 850 MB VORT -14 -25 -30 -27 -20 -25 -11 -15 -44 -52 -68 -64 -94 LAND (KM) 701 584 472 359 261 102 227 289 376 580 816 1026 1204 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.5 18.0 18.6 19.4 20.4 21.5 22.8 24.0 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 148.7 149.9 151.1 152.3 153.5 155.8 158.0 160.5 163.0 165.4 167.7 169.6 171.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 625 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -5 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -18. -23. -27. -30. -32. -34. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR -7. -14. -21. -27. -38. -45. -49. -52. -56. -59. -60. -61. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -16. -26. -37. -55. -70. -79. -87. -94.-101.-105.-107. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -17. -27. -37. -54. -67. -76. -82. -88. -93. -99.-105. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) MATSUDA 7/29/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 35.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 25.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 61.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 3.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 1.94 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)