* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/29/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 33 39 43 45 45 45 44 43 41 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 33 39 43 45 45 45 44 43 41 SHEAR (KTS) 3 9 10 13 13 13 15 13 8 4 10 14 18 SHEAR DIR 23 31 41 52 52 56 57 64 107 129 198 229 221 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.2 27.2 26.6 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 147 144 139 139 132 127 128 128 129 132 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 500-300 MB RH 61 57 51 46 47 46 43 36 30 21 21 20 22 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -4 1 0 4 2 2 850 MB VORT 4 3 5 4 1 -4 -7 -11 -7 -11 -10 -22 -31 LAND (KM) 2490 2367 2244 2119 1995 1742 1477 1220 950 681 444 398 586 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.5 135.6 136.8 137.9 140.2 142.6 145.0 147.7 150.8 154.0 157.3 160.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 583 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 23. 25. 25. 25. 24. 23. 21. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/29/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.49 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.40 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 127.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 3.67 Prob of RI= 21.5% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)