* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/29/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 40 39 38 36 34 32 32 29 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 40 39 38 36 34 32 32 29 20 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 20 31 38 35 43 46 42 49 47 45 38 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 237 253 253 243 247 243 243 245 258 259 9999 9999 SST (C) 22.5 21.5 19.4 16.8 14.1 11.2 14.6 13.7 13.8 13.7 13.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 90 82 76 73 70 73 72 72 72 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -51.9 -51.6 -50.4 -48.8 -47.5 -46.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 38 35 35 38 43 40 40 46 51 46 46 N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 -10 4 2 8 29 -7 -17 4 6 -2 N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -4 -5 0 5 25 59 90 95 100 115 145 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 373 354 317 294 155 381 815 1237 1378 1009 711 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.8 42.0 43.1 44.2 45.3 48.0 50.2 52.0 53.7 55.1 57.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.8 60.7 58.5 56.0 53.5 47.7 42.0 36.4 31.0 25.5 19.8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 672 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -19. -25. -31. -34. -39. -41. -41. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 8. 12. 21. 29. 36. 42. 51. 55. 53. 47. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -28. -31. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -15. -23. -33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -16. -24. -35. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/29/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 33.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.23 SST (C) : Value: 18.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 38.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.10 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.30 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 2.45 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)