* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/29/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 48 55 58 62 65 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 28 33 40 46 52 56 60 63 67 67 SHEAR (KTS) 20 17 23 24 17 16 7 10 10 11 9 14 10 SHEAR DIR 269 256 244 256 263 240 269 214 235 212 218 212 241 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 155 157 155 155 154 155 155 155 157 160 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 11 13 12 13 12 14 13 14 13 500-300 MB RH 47 48 52 51 54 48 51 46 46 41 41 37 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 6 3 -3 0 0 0 -2 3 3 2 5 2 850 MB VORT 30 47 56 51 53 48 20 1 -22 -11 -25 -23 -33 LAND (KM) 325 199 76 0 53 7 111 200 196 181 170 122 79 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.6 20.8 21.7 22.2 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 63.0 64.2 65.4 66.6 67.8 69.8 71.6 72.9 74.0 74.9 75.7 76.7 77.7 HEAT CONTENT 84 88 83 76 71 73 65 55 54 59 61 68 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 660 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 18 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 29. 33. 37. 41. 44. 46. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 23. 30. 33. 37. 40. 44. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/29/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.24 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 4.00 Prob of RI= 11.8% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)