* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/29/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 28 33 38 41 43 44 44 43 41 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 28 33 38 41 43 44 44 43 41 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 11 13 11 13 15 12 8 6 12 12 19 SHEAR DIR 30 42 59 60 69 61 58 82 120 165 214 226 228 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 145 143 143 140 132 131 130 131 132 135 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 500-300 MB RH 56 52 46 46 46 45 40 28 28 20 21 21 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 3 5 1 3 1 1 850 MB VORT 3 5 3 2 -4 -15 -22 -23 -24 -25 -26 -37 -33 LAND (KM) 2367 2232 2098 1972 1847 1590 1325 1078 836 613 524 653 820 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 134.5 135.8 137.1 138.3 139.5 142.0 144.6 147.2 150.2 153.4 156.7 160.1 163.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 588 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 33 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 20. 20. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. 21. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/29/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.39 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.23 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.15 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.16 Scaled RI index= 2.85 Prob of RI= 6.4% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)