* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/29/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 28 27 27 28 28 29 29 33 31 25 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 28 27 27 28 28 29 29 33 31 25 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 28 36 38 43 46 49 48 53 52 42 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 249 254 246 237 239 237 235 237 236 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 21.1 19.1 16.5 13.4 11.6 12.7 14.3 13.6 13.8 13.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 82 76 72 70 71 73 72 72 72 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 -53.4 -52.7 -51.2 -50.5 -50.2 -49.2 -46.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 34 34 39 46 43 37 38 50 53 49 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -9 -5 8 6 13 32 7 4 -18 -9 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -13 -10 10 23 42 65 96 104 108 131 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 341 343 278 112 199 580 985 1369 1264 916 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.2 43.3 44.3 45.7 47.1 49.2 51.1 52.8 54.3 56.3 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.2 57.9 55.5 52.9 50.3 45.1 39.8 34.7 29.4 23.8 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 21 CX,CY: 16/ 13 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 698 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -24. -27. -30. -33. -34. -33. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 6. 12. 18. 31. 40. 48. 55. 64. 66. 62. 54. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -9. -5. -2. -1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -24. -28. -32. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -1. -2. -9. -20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -2. -4. -10. -22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/29/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.18 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 38.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.10 SST (C) : Value: 16.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 42.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.14 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.53 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 1.74 Prob of RI= 2.0% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)