* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/29/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 45 53 58 61 64 68 71 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 45 53 58 61 64 68 71 73 SHEAR (KTS) 17 24 24 17 12 13 5 12 9 13 11 14 13 SHEAR DIR 258 244 257 264 252 257 237 229 219 212 210 231 213 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 157 157 155 154 155 157 160 164 165 164 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 13 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 500-300 MB RH 48 51 51 54 51 45 49 43 46 38 40 36 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 3 -3 0 1 0 1 0 3 2 7 6 4 850 MB VORT 48 58 57 56 59 27 14 -21 -27 -37 -41 -42 -24 LAND (KM) 172 57 16 26 15 88 166 209 273 317 289 234 193 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.6 21.4 22.4 23.4 24.2 24.6 25.4 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 64.5 65.8 67.0 68.1 69.1 71.1 73.0 74.2 75.0 75.9 77.2 77.9 78.2 HEAT CONTENT 86 82 77 71 75 67 57 55 61 67 71 74 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 693 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 61 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 31. 35. 39. 43. 46. 49. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 13. 20. 28. 33. 36. 39. 43. 46. 48. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/29/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.43 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.43 Scaled RI index= 4.28 Prob of RI= 15.1% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)