* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/29/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 35 38 41 43 43 40 36 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 35 38 41 43 43 40 36 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 10 13 13 10 13 10 7 13 20 26 26 SHEAR DIR 34 43 42 43 43 41 58 108 145 204 238 242 244 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 144 140 138 141 133 130 130 130 131 133 137 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 7 7 8 8 10 10 500-300 MB RH 54 50 48 45 45 47 43 34 25 22 19 25 25 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 0 0 0 0 1 1 6 7 2 0 5 10 850 MB VORT 14 11 10 6 4 -10 -29 -34 -40 -39 -44 -37 -38 LAND (KM) 2305 2171 2038 1899 1761 1463 1170 892 638 477 572 747 878 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.8 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 134.7 136.0 137.3 138.7 140.0 143.0 146.0 149.0 152.3 155.7 159.3 162.7 165.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 639 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 17. 16. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 23. 20. 16. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/29/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.33 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.28 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.10 Scaled RI index= 2.48 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)