* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * FRANKLIN 07/30/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 36 34 34 34 33 32 31 27 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 36 34 34 34 33 32 31 27 18 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 37 38 38 46 47 47 51 49 43 28 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 253 250 240 244 240 238 236 241 237 9999 9999 9999 SST (C) 18.5 15.7 12.8 11.6 12.4 14.8 14.0 14.1 13.8 12.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 80 75 71 70 71 73 72 73 72 71 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -52.5 -51.8 -50.3 -48.7 -47.1 -45.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 500-300 MB RH 31 36 40 42 43 41 36 38 44 48 N/A N/A N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 0 9 5 18 25 16 -11 18 1 N/A N/A N/A 850 MB VORT -2 17 10 18 35 58 90 126 119 119 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 336 244 149 316 540 995 1421 1203 858 619 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.5 44.6 45.7 47.1 48.4 50.5 52.4 54.0 55.4 57.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.5 54.7 51.8 48.7 45.6 39.5 33.8 28.4 23.1 17.7 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 24 CX,CY: 18/ 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 638 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -8 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -14. -21. -27. -33. -36. -41. -42. -43. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 5. 10. 15. 26. 36. 43. 50. 57. 60. 58. 51. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. -32. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. -17. -26. -37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -18. -27. -38. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FRANKLIN 7/30/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 41.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.03 SST (C) : Value: 14.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 28.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.01 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 1.44 Prob of RI= 1.7% is 0.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)