* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/30/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 44 51 55 58 60 63 65 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 27 27 33 39 44 47 49 52 54 55 SHEAR (KTS) 25 28 23 18 19 12 9 11 14 13 18 15 18 SHEAR DIR 239 253 264 259 255 291 236 256 230 241 220 247 237 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 155 157 155 155 159 160 162 164 164 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.7 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 14 14 500-300 MB RH 48 48 51 50 49 48 43 43 40 42 39 41 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 -2 0 5 3 4 1 5 2 9 2 0 -2 850 MB VORT 59 58 58 60 54 33 12 -33 -34 -56 -57 -67 -55 LAND (KM) 44 9 15 -27 -73 22 78 100 111 94 100 69 59 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.1 20.1 21.2 22.0 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.3 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 65.9 67.2 68.4 69.5 70.6 72.6 74.4 75.9 77.1 78.0 78.8 79.5 80.2 HEAT CONTENT 81 76 76 9999 9999 70 61 63 72 80 88 92 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 676 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 28. 31. 34. 37. 40. 41. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 41. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/30/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.50 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.59 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 4.44 Prob of RI= 17.9% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)