* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/30/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 42 49 53 55 54 52 50 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 42 49 53 55 54 52 50 48 46 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 15 18 23 27 SHEAR DIR 62 73 73 64 69 50 88 140 190 223 232 251 255 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 144 145 145 138 133 131 130 132 132 135 138 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 500-300 MB RH 52 50 49 49 47 51 40 39 29 27 28 32 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 3 2 4 0 3 3 0 -1 -2 10 1 850 MB VORT 7 9 5 0 -5 -14 -32 -35 -27 -20 -15 -24 -33 LAND (KM) 1964 1832 1703 1572 1443 1194 946 721 559 566 731 860 993 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 138.5 139.8 141.1 142.4 143.7 146.4 149.2 152.0 155.0 158.1 161.2 164.3 167.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 564 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 29 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 23. 25. 26. 25. 24. 22. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 17. 24. 28. 30. 29. 27. 25. 23. 21. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/30/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.77 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 3.93 Prob of RI= 26.3% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)