* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/30/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 51 59 64 68 71 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 27 25 26 30 32 34 42 46 50 54 57 57 SHEAR (KTS) 24 17 17 15 11 10 6 9 6 11 6 16 7 SHEAR DIR 262 269 258 263 285 246 268 219 245 209 223 208 237 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 157 159 157 157 160 162 162 162 162 162 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 500-300 MB RH 53 52 47 48 47 42 44 38 40 35 39 37 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 6 0 12 3 2 3 2 2 4 0 0 1 850 MB VORT 63 65 56 48 43 28 -15 -24 -48 -48 -66 -54 -71 LAND (KM) 45 25 -17 -53 9 -17 0 1 30 33 44 112 171 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.3 20.2 21.2 22.1 22.8 23.3 23.6 24.1 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.9 70.9 71.9 72.9 74.7 76.5 78.1 79.4 80.5 81.5 82.5 83.4 HEAT CONTENT 83 89 87 9999 87 79 73 79 92 85 69 65 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 663 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 26. 33. 37. 41. 45. 48. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 27. 34. 39. 43. 46. 49. 49. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/30/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.10 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 4.00 Prob of RI= 11.8% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)