* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/30/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 55 62 66 70 74 78 81 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 55 62 66 70 74 78 81 SHEAR (KTS) 1 3 2 2 7 8 14 11 12 6 1 11 10 SHEAR DIR 101 74 101 24 28 75 42 74 45 113 189 189 215 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 155 154 148 145 149 149 148 149 151 151 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 11 10 12 10 13 12 15 14 500-300 MB RH 46 41 41 50 51 55 51 53 49 49 40 38 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2 2 1 5 3 850 MB VORT -13 -7 -5 4 7 18 13 22 17 16 24 37 29 LAND (KM) 556 531 525 434 339 113 211 322 305 291 298 228 221 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.8 12.6 13.5 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.5 54.9 56.4 57.9 60.8 63.5 66.0 68.3 70.6 73.1 75.7 78.6 HEAT CONTENT 76 81 73 70 80 49 43 62 71 58 68 65 97 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 518 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 30. 37. 41. 46. 50. 54. 57. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 31. 37. 41. 46. 49. 53. 56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/30/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 2.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.99 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 129.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.31 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 4.99 Prob of RI= 36.3% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)