* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/30/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 36 41 46 49 50 50 50 48 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 36 41 46 49 50 50 50 48 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 10 12 13 11 4 4 7 9 13 18 22 SHEAR DIR 64 61 63 58 64 67 94 104 212 229 234 239 246 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 145 141 136 132 131 132 132 133 136 138 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 500-300 MB RH 50 44 44 43 41 35 32 27 25 23 25 28 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 3 0 -2 0 2 3 7 850 MB VORT -8 -11 -15 -18 -21 -26 -21 -21 -17 -12 -13 -25 -34 LAND (KM) 1770 1642 1516 1397 1282 1042 806 621 575 675 856 936 1062 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 140.5 141.8 143.1 144.4 145.6 148.3 151.2 154.1 157.0 159.8 162.6 165.1 167.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 695 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 27. 27. 27. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 26. 29. 30. 30. 30. 28. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/30/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.40 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.31 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 124.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.31 Scaled RI index= 3.19 Prob of RI= 12.8% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)