* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 07/30/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 50 56 60 63 67 70 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 30 34 41 48 54 58 61 64 59 43 SHEAR (KTS) 20 21 19 12 9 10 8 11 15 14 16 16 15 SHEAR DIR 262 253 264 272 245 230 200 208 187 206 190 225 217 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 157 157 157 155 157 160 164 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 13 13 14 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 500-300 MB RH 49 45 46 49 47 43 43 38 41 40 44 41 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 5 11 6 5 4 2 2 4 0 2 2 7 850 MB VORT 53 53 39 32 32 -1 -14 -40 -37 -48 -35 -40 -24 LAND (KM) -45 -70 -27 5 69 61 94 127 159 150 67 -1 -53 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.5 20.0 20.4 21.3 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.9 25.6 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.9 70.9 71.8 72.7 73.6 75.1 76.7 77.7 78.7 79.4 79.9 80.3 80.7 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 76 70 64 68 79 88 102 86 71 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 665 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 17. 22. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 31. 35. 38. 42. 45. 47. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 31. 35. 38. 42. 45. 47. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/30/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.76 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.47 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.63 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 4.60 Prob of RI= 21.9% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)