* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/30/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 50 56 63 67 71 75 77 78 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 41 50 56 63 67 71 75 77 78 SHEAR (KTS) 2 1 5 10 11 10 14 7 7 4 4 15 15 SHEAR DIR 190 244 18 17 43 35 52 36 62 230 221 231 218 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 154 149 143 146 149 146 148 151 152 159 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 11 13 11 14 13 15 14 15 500-300 MB RH 43 43 51 55 54 61 54 54 48 43 38 41 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 2 1 -1 -2 850 MB VORT 5 5 11 15 22 24 16 23 12 23 20 22 -2 LAND (KM) 552 484 388 263 112 144 250 255 242 308 278 280 186 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.8 11.1 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.7 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.6 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 55.6 57.1 58.6 60.1 62.9 65.6 68.1 70.6 73.3 76.1 79.0 81.8 HEAT CONTENT 83 71 71 91 62 37 46 68 55 62 66 96 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 569 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 29. 37. 42. 47. 51. 53. 55. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 25. 31. 38. 42. 46. 50. 52. 53. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/30/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 128.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.93 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.63 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.42 Scaled RI index= 5.24 Prob of RI= 44.9% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)