* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/31/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 47 54 58 64 69 72 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 47 54 58 64 69 72 75 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 8 8 12 7 13 5 3 7 5 13 10 SHEAR DIR 1 26 33 21 11 46 32 98 11 183 226 203 211 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.1 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 149 148 148 152 152 149 151 151 151 159 165 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 11 12 11 13 12 14 14 15 11 500-300 MB RH 56 52 51 55 53 49 50 42 38 34 36 41 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 850 MB VORT 3 4 -1 7 11 4 10 18 38 47 33 24 1 LAND (KM) 373 257 204 251 288 401 358 248 263 217 227 226 22 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.0 13.3 14.2 14.9 15.5 15.7 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 57.8 59.2 60.6 62.0 63.3 65.8 68.3 70.6 73.2 75.7 78.5 81.3 84.2 HEAT CONTENT 83 83 52 47 53 72 75 61 74 70 95 84 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 695 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 26. 32. 38. 43. 48. 50. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 22. 29. 33. 39. 44. 47. 50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/31/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.81 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.62 Scaled RI index= 5.24 Prob of RI= 44.8% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)