* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/31/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 42 47 53 59 61 60 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 42 47 53 59 61 60 57 SHEAR (KTS) 26 24 21 14 14 13 8 13 6 13 16 16 25 SHEAR DIR 233 241 249 250 251 273 274 292 293 265 220 208 194 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 157 157 157 159 160 160 160 155 148 143 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 10 500-300 MB RH 53 53 53 56 54 49 55 58 62 62 68 51 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 8 8 2 3 5 5 13 9 4 -3 1 19 850 MB VORT -29 -33 -37 -39 -29 -51 -4 11 39 8 -21 -74 -77 LAND (KM) 443 450 461 501 550 665 763 840 931 978 1027 1203 1383 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.1 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.7 26.6 27.3 28.1 29.0 30.0 30.4 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 66.8 67.5 68.1 68.6 69.1 69.7 69.9 69.9 69.7 68.7 67.0 64.5 62.2 HEAT CONTENT 47 46 42 43 40 38 30 29 28 20 24 8 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 504 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 18. 23. 30. 35. 37. 36. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 17. 22. 28. 34. 36. 35. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/31/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.56 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.78 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.14 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 4.17 Prob of RI= 13.8% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)