* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/31/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 58 66 72 77 81 83 85 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 58 66 72 77 81 83 85 SHEAR (KTS) 5 1 4 6 6 4 4 9 8 13 10 13 10 SHEAR DIR 62 114 6 8 70 191 187 256 252 251 227 242 228 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 148 149 151 149 149 151 152 154 157 162 162 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 12 14 12 14 14 15 14 15 13 14 500-300 MB RH 52 50 54 50 47 49 45 41 44 44 47 50 48 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 4 -1 -3 3 1 850 MB VORT 16 10 15 14 8 23 21 49 29 33 2 -5 -24 LAND (KM) 194 227 259 318 324 304 228 217 129 161 335 232 118 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 17.9 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 63.0 64.4 65.8 67.1 69.5 71.9 74.3 76.8 79.3 81.6 84.1 86.5 HEAT CONTENT 39 45 57 62 69 66 69 84 86 90 90 98 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 563 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 23. 26. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 30. 39. 46. 51. 55. 58. 60. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 33. 41. 47. 52. 56. 58. 60. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/31/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.71 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 5.07 Prob of RI= 39.2% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)