* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 07/31/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 41 42 41 40 38 34 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 41 42 41 40 38 34 SHEAR (KTS) 16 16 15 10 8 10 11 13 1 13 30 33 32 SHEAR DIR 348 324 325 308 310 9 19 9 68 232 248 269 258 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 25.7 24.9 23.7 21.9 19.5 16.9 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 121 120 120 120 116 110 101 91 83 77 73 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 -55.3 -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -54.5 -54.5 -55.2 -54.9 -52.9 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 2 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 59 61 61 63 59 56 47 49 51 51 55 55 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 20 9 3 0 0 -11 -18 -20 -3 14 35 85 29 850 MB VORT 41 33 20 16 0 -27 -24 -52 -27 -60 -29 34 105 LAND (KM) 2249 2191 2136 2030 1928 1743 1562 1369 1184 1051 1013 1124 1499 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.4 29.1 30.3 31.5 33.6 35.3 37.0 39.1 41.7 44.8 48.5 52.2 LONG(DEG W) 44.7 44.0 43.3 42.8 42.3 41.8 42.2 42.9 42.9 41.9 40.3 37.7 32.6 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 604 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 27. 29. 29. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -8. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 16. 14. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 13. 9. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 7/31/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 26.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.31 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 96.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.63 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.34 Scaled RI index= 3.35 Prob of RI= 3.9% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)