* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/01/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 47 53 57 59 59 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 47 53 57 59 59 56 SHEAR (KTS) 24 22 17 15 13 12 12 15 19 26 32 35 N/A SHEAR DIR 242 249 250 255 271 290 285 277 250 235 226 231 9999 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.3 27.3 26.6 25.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 157 157 159 160 159 146 133 125 116 113 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 12 11 11 9 9 8 7 5 N/A 500-300 MB RH 53 53 57 55 52 55 55 65 63 64 60 54 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 5 4 6 9 3 6 1 4 19 9 -15 N/A 850 MB VORT -34 -40 -40 -31 -42 -38 13 17 25 41 84 124 N/A LAND (KM) 475 499 533 596 665 815 973 945 946 1060 1096 1160 1016 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.9 25.6 27.0 28.4 29.9 31.6 33.2 34.4 35.6 37.6 LONG(DEG W) 66.9 67.5 68.1 68.5 68.8 69.1 68.8 68.2 66.8 64.7 60.6 55.8 51.9 HEAT CONTENT 51 46 44 41 40 27 21 28 17 15 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 473 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -7 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 18. 24. 29. 34. 35. 35. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 17. 22. 28. 32. 34. 34. 31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/01/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.61 SST (C) : Value: 29.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.77 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.04 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.15 Prob of RI= 13.6% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)