* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/01/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 58 66 70 74 77 78 80 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 58 66 70 74 77 78 80 SHEAR (KTS) 3 4 5 2 6 5 13 12 15 12 16 11 N/A SHEAR DIR 126 299 351 85 193 266 235 281 248 279 244 284 9999 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 149 151 151 152 155 155 157 159 160 164 160 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 13 13 12 14 14 15 14 14 12 N/A 500-300 MB RH 51 49 51 47 45 47 44 44 42 46 48 48 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 0 0 1 1 8 6 0 6 -4 4 N/A 850 MB VORT 17 13 17 11 11 7 14 4 -1 -21 -33 -36 N/A LAND (KM) 222 282 333 334 333 155 78 62 23 214 289 211 138 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.3 14.9 16.2 17.3 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 63.2 64.7 66.2 67.6 68.9 71.5 73.7 75.7 77.8 80.1 82.1 84.1 85.8 HEAT CONTENT 45 61 63 73 71 75 96 95 93 106 105 98 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 555 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 25 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 30. 37. 42. 46. 49. 52. 55. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 33. 41. 45. 49. 52. 53. 55. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/01/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.68 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.45 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.76 Scaled RI index= 5.07 Prob of RI= 39.0% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)