* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/01/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 35 36 36 35 35 35 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 35 36 36 35 35 35 30 SHEAR (KTS) 17 20 14 12 7 11 14 14 12 26 44 33 N/A SHEAR DIR 329 340 329 327 348 34 17 41 320 312 309 300 9999 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.3 24.9 24.5 23.7 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 121 120 120 119 117 115 113 110 106 101 89 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.3 -55.3 -54.8 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -55.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 2 N/A 500-300 MB RH 59 58 58 55 52 52 42 49 49 59 62 53 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 13 5 0 0 -4 -9 -20 -15 -28 -40 -17 41 N/A 850 MB VORT 37 29 29 14 9 -16 -42 -51 -64 -100 -14 27 N/A LAND (KM) 2171 2099 2028 1941 1855 1724 1620 1530 1434 1342 1187 982 1029 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.1 29.8 30.7 31.5 32.7 33.5 34.2 35.0 35.9 37.4 40.1 42.5 LONG(DEG W) 44.8 44.6 44.3 44.3 44.2 44.4 45.0 45.5 45.9 45.9 46.0 45.0 41.5 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 705 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 5. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/01/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 26.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.31 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.63 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.45 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 3.47 Prob of RI= 5.3% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)