* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/01/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 28 32 36 42 47 50 51 49 46 42 37 V (KT) LAND 20 23 28 32 36 42 47 50 51 49 46 42 37 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 12 14 14 18 17 17 14 13 14 17 N/A SHEAR DIR 295 289 280 272 270 283 267 267 222 215 204 226 9999 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 27.9 26.9 25.7 24.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 152 151 152 153 152 146 136 123 111 100 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -51.7 -52.6 -51.9 -52.8 -51.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 N/A 500-300 MB RH 58 58 57 57 57 53 47 53 52 51 45 37 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 1 -3 -2 1 3 0 1 4 9 16 N/A 850 MB VORT 17 16 11 3 -3 -29 -24 -25 -20 -17 -15 -18 N/A LAND (KM) 919 909 914 930 952 992 1067 1066 1075 1110 1136 1193 1246 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.4 13.4 14.4 15.5 16.6 17.7 18.8 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.1 107.1 108.0 108.9 110.8 112.8 114.7 116.6 118.4 120.2 121.9 123.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 612 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 126 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 28. 30. 31. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 22. 26. 27. 26. 23. 19. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 27. 30. 31. 29. 26. 22. 17. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/01/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.30 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 3.68 Prob of RI= 21.7% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)