* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/01/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 40 47 53 57 58 55 50 44 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 40 47 53 57 58 55 50 44 SHEAR (KTS) 8 13 14 17 18 16 16 10 12 9 18 19 21 SHEAR DIR 276 268 275 271 280 277 270 245 235 226 237 245 254 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.2 26.9 25.7 24.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 150 151 152 154 153 149 136 123 114 110 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -51.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.0 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 56 53 53 52 53 47 48 55 54 50 44 33 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 5 7 10 -5 850 MB VORT 7 1 -5 -13 -24 -36 -46 -46 -48 -37 -24 -23 -28 LAND (KM) 1048 1074 1098 1122 1153 1220 1239 1261 1290 1317 1377 1442 1503 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 12.3 13.0 13.9 15.0 16.1 17.1 18.2 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.4 110.3 111.2 112.0 113.7 115.4 117.3 119.0 120.9 122.7 124.5 126.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 683 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 57 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 28. 30. 31. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 29. 33. 33. 31. 27. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 27. 33. 37. 38. 35. 30. 24. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/01/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.22 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 129.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.67 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 3.31 Prob of RI= 14.9% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)