* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/01/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 45 51 55 57 57 57 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 45 51 55 57 57 57 53 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 12 7 5 10 7 12 16 21 18 15 18 SHEAR DIR 235 223 258 286 227 270 237 258 219 205 226 296 319 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 160 160 155 146 139 139 139 134 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 8 7 6 6 500-300 MB RH 52 48 47 50 53 55 64 60 62 46 33 40 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 0 3 3 -5 9 0 15 0 -2 -2 1 -1 850 MB VORT -14 -18 -34 -23 7 19 38 -4 -16 -35 -24 -18 -24 LAND (KM) 410 468 525 602 679 839 971 1032 1225 1389 1570 1739 1947 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.0 24.5 25.2 25.9 27.3 29.0 30.4 31.5 32.0 32.2 31.3 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 69.8 70.1 70.4 70.5 70.5 70.0 68.8 66.6 63.6 59.3 54.1 49.5 47.7 HEAT CONTENT 45 49 52 47 40 27 14 11 12 14 9 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 674 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 23. 28. 32. 34. 34. 33. 31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 20. 26. 30. 32. 32. 32. 28. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/01/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.84 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 135.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.99 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 4.49 Prob of RI= 19.3% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)