* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/01/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 43 48 51 52 49 45 38 29 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 43 48 51 52 49 45 38 29 SHEAR (KTS) 14 14 16 18 18 19 16 14 14 17 21 22 23 SHEAR DIR 266 268 270 275 285 268 264 222 239 221 240 239 248 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.0 25.8 24.5 23.4 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 151 152 153 152 147 137 124 111 99 93 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -51.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 500-300 MB RH 53 54 52 54 49 49 49 52 49 47 39 33 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 7 12 19 -10 850 MB VORT -1 -9 -16 -26 -35 -30 -42 -34 -29 -6 -6 -7 -27 LAND (KM) 1021 1046 1074 1102 1141 1160 1151 1144 1146 1152 1204 1205 1237 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.5 14.5 15.7 16.9 18.2 19.4 20.6 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.1 111.1 112.1 113.0 114.8 116.4 117.8 119.4 120.9 122.5 123.9 125.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 594 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 21. 25. 26. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 21. 24. 24. 22. 17. 10. 3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 24. 20. 13. 4. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/01/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.06 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.24 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.27 Scaled RI index= 3.35 Prob of RI= 15.7% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)