* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/02/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 40 47 52 57 59 59 58 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 40 47 52 57 59 59 58 54 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 8 7 10 6 13 16 19 25 12 15 14 SHEAR DIR 225 258 269 231 256 262 240 242 213 218 247 306 308 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 160 159 151 142 135 137 134 133 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.8 -53.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 6 6 5 6 500-300 MB RH 50 49 50 54 53 60 61 63 54 42 36 39 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 3 4 -3 -1 3 18 8 4 -13 7 7 0 850 MB VORT -18 -35 -25 0 11 34 21 -4 -3 0 -14 2 -10 LAND (KM) 478 542 607 680 753 935 981 1058 1249 1361 1574 1733 1925 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.6 25.2 25.9 26.5 28.1 29.9 31.4 32.5 32.8 32.4 31.3 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 69.8 70.0 69.9 69.8 69.2 67.7 65.6 62.3 57.9 53.4 49.9 47.7 HEAT CONTENT 47 47 45 38 29 21 16 9 13 11 8 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 511 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 17. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 19. 19. 19. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 24. 29. 33. 36. 35. 33. 31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 22. 27. 32. 34. 34. 33. 29. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/02/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 29.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.81 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 136.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 1.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 4.58 Prob of RI= 21.3% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)