* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/02/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 38 43 47 48 46 42 36 28 19 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 38 43 47 48 46 42 36 28 19 SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 19 19 20 17 12 14 14 17 18 21 24 SHEAR DIR 276 281 287 285 276 272 244 232 216 230 218 240 245 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.4 26.2 24.9 23.5 22.7 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 152 153 153 148 141 128 115 100 92 88 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -51.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 2 1 1 500-300 MB RH 53 50 50 45 48 52 51 52 44 41 34 32 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 0 3 6 8 10 14 14 3 -5 850 MB VORT 7 -11 -29 -45 -48 -55 -64 -54 -33 -29 -11 -41 -38 LAND (KM) 1057 1078 1117 1151 1149 1148 1168 1171 1182 1222 1228 1247 1278 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.4 15.4 16.4 17.6 18.9 20.4 21.6 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 111.1 112.3 113.3 114.3 116.2 117.8 119.1 120.7 122.3 124.0 125.3 126.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 586 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 73 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 21. 24. 24. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 18. 20. 18. 14. 8. 1. -7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 13. 18. 22. 23. 21. 17. 11. 3. -6. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/02/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.6 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.30 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 3.36 Prob of RI= 15.9% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)