* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/02/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 47 48 49 49 47 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 43 47 48 49 49 47 43 SHEAR (KTS) 16 13 10 13 12 19 21 21 16 11 13 20 21 SHEAR DIR 290 297 272 281 254 229 228 209 225 222 246 257 275 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 151 146 142 135 135 137 134 134 133 129 128 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 6 7 6 7 7 500-300 MB RH 56 57 55 59 63 61 56 46 36 28 29 31 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 1 7 6 5 1 9 0 5 6 -1 0 2 850 MB VORT -32 -9 2 3 9 18 2 -7 -17 -52 -62 -61 -50 LAND (KM) 769 853 938 999 966 1034 1182 1265 1311 1383 1363 1320 1321 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.4 28.1 29.0 29.8 31.2 32.1 32.6 32.9 32.8 33.1 33.7 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 69.3 69.1 68.9 68.5 68.0 66.0 63.8 61.3 58.9 57.4 57.2 56.9 56.4 HEAT CONTENT 29 24 20 15 16 9 13 11 7 13 12 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 666 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 19. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 15. 20. 24. 25. 27. 25. 23. 20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 22. 23. 24. 24. 22. 18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/02/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.04 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.17 Scaled RI index= 3.86 Prob of RI= 10.0% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)