* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EIGHT 08/02/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 48 52 53 53 52 50 47 44 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 48 52 53 53 52 50 47 44 SHEAR (KTS) 14 17 17 9 15 19 25 30 22 11 8 18 17 SHEAR DIR 278 272 278 258 217 230 213 218 229 270 269 274 274 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 142 138 134 133 135 134 135 135 135 137 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 6 7 7 8 500-300 MB RH 52 52 58 61 62 47 50 38 33 32 34 38 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 5 8 4 8 8 13 -13 2 6 0 3 4 850 MB VORT -11 0 1 14 29 5 19 -18 -36 -49 -66 -59 -32 LAND (KM) 951 989 945 943 952 1086 1239 1292 1430 1532 1532 1548 1586 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.0 29.7 30.5 31.2 32.1 32.6 32.8 32.7 32.2 32.2 32.1 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 68.6 68.4 67.7 67.0 64.9 62.3 59.7 56.6 55.3 55.3 55.1 54.9 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 18 18 11 11 12 9 14 10 10 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 653 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 33 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 23. 24. 24. 23. 21. 18. 16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 22. 23. 23. 22. 20. 17. 14. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EIGHT 8/02/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.70 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.61 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.53 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 34.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.11 Scaled RI index= 4.21 Prob of RI= 14.2% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)