* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EIGHT 08/03/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 49 50 49 46 42 38 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 49 50 49 46 42 38 32 SHEAR (KTS) 14 18 11 18 24 27 31 29 15 11 16 19 21 SHEAR DIR 277 277 262 217 225 233 223 231 236 295 267 296 285 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 142 138 134 132 132 133 132 131 128 126 123 120 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 10 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 6 500-300 MB RH 51 56 57 57 49 45 42 38 33 32 35 39 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 8 4 5 11 29 -10 -7 0 9 4 11 0 850 MB VORT 7 3 20 38 33 68 33 32 -10 -46 -57 -44 -31 LAND (KM) 986 959 941 972 1016 1128 1215 1299 1374 1390 1394 1378 1352 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.7 30.6 31.4 32.1 33.1 33.2 33.3 33.5 33.8 34.1 34.3 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 68.8 68.2 67.6 66.7 65.7 63.6 60.8 58.2 56.0 54.5 53.6 52.6 51.4 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 17 9 11 13 9 8 9 7 4 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 730 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 21 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 15. 16. 18. 18. 17. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 20. 22. 20. 18. 14. 9. 4. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 19. 20. 19. 16. 12. 8. 2. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EIGHT 8/03/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.56 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 108.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.75 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.25 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.21 Scaled RI index= 3.86 Prob of RI= 10.0% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)