* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EIGHT 08/03/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 42 44 45 45 43 42 40 35 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 42 44 45 45 43 42 40 35 SHEAR (KTS) 22 14 13 22 22 27 28 14 12 11 18 8 17 SHEAR DIR 269 277 227 239 236 223 229 218 243 253 290 260 270 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 135 134 133 134 131 129 129 127 123 120 117 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 6 500-300 MB RH 56 61 60 55 47 45 38 30 26 32 34 37 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 16 3 0 5 7 11 -9 -7 0 0 6 6 1 850 MB VORT 4 8 25 27 37 73 39 33 -17 -42 -51 -25 -35 LAND (KM) 947 945 953 1002 1059 1187 1206 1268 1331 1353 1344 1327 1340 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.2 30.9 31.5 32.1 33.0 33.6 33.8 33.8 34.0 34.6 34.8 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 68.6 67.9 67.2 66.2 65.2 62.6 59.8 57.8 56.4 55.0 53.2 51.7 50.5 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 13 9 11 12 6 7 7 7 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 774 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 35 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 19. 19. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 16. 15. 13. 11. 7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 12. 10. 5. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EIGHT 8/03/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 107.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.73 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.16 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 3.50 Prob of RI= 5.7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)