* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * EIGHT 08/03/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 45 48 49 49 46 42 41 38 33 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 45 48 49 49 46 42 41 38 33 SHEAR (KTS) 18 11 21 23 24 28 28 15 13 11 3 20 22 SHEAR DIR 283 245 238 246 230 227 231 227 251 253 300 207 213 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 132 132 131 127 125 123 119 114 110 109 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 9 7 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 500-300 MB RH 59 60 55 51 52 43 40 36 41 47 52 49 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 0 13 5 0 -10 -6 5 6 2 7 18 850 MB VORT 10 15 28 25 46 13 16 -20 -53 -66 -46 -19 -3 LAND (KM) 909 936 975 1055 1134 1148 1203 1257 1268 1223 1124 1081 1070 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.1 31.7 32.3 32.9 33.7 34.1 34.5 35.0 35.7 36.8 37.7 38.7 LONG(DEG W) 68.2 67.3 66.4 65.2 63.9 61.3 58.6 56.4 54.5 52.5 50.3 48.1 45.8 HEAT CONTENT 18 12 9 11 14 8 6 3 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 30/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 811 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 70 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 17. 16. 13. 9. 7. 4. 0. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 11. 7. 6. 3. -2. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) EIGHT 8/03/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.57 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.50 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.04 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 3.49 Prob of RI= 5.5% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)