* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/03/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 57 59 60 58 56 52 45 42 37 30 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 57 59 60 58 56 52 45 42 37 30 SHEAR (KTS) 15 21 21 22 22 29 13 5 16 19 18 26 31 SHEAR DIR 247 247 249 231 219 225 213 194 217 249 246 259 268 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.1 24.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 134 135 132 128 124 120 117 111 105 100 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 9 8 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 500-300 MB RH 61 53 51 52 49 38 31 26 32 38 43 43 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 2 8 4 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 5 9 12 0 850 MB VORT 21 18 23 40 53 6 -22 -72 -84 -53 -9 -34 -39 LAND (KM) 914 965 1025 1123 1200 1208 1204 1220 1171 1089 968 920 947 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.3 32.6 33.3 34.0 34.7 35.7 36.9 38.4 39.9 41.4 LONG(DEG W) 67.7 66.7 65.7 64.4 63.1 60.7 58.8 57.0 55.2 52.7 49.5 46.6 43.8 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 11 12 13 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 800 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 74 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 9. 4. -3. -6. -12. -18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 2. -5. -8. -13. -20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/03/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.56 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 84.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.52 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.57 Scaled RI index= 3.50 Prob of RI= 5.7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)