* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/03/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 38 39 39 35 31 27 25 22 18 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 38 39 39 35 31 27 25 22 18 SHEAR (KTS) 16 12 17 14 12 17 26 34 33 33 32 38 41 SHEAR DIR 316 298 298 303 299 268 272 270 270 257 261 258 263 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 126 125 123 122 123 124 123 124 124 124 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 500-300 MB RH 37 39 39 42 43 43 39 41 41 41 38 35 33 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 -3 0 2 0 -3 4 18 3 0 6 -2 850 MB VORT -12 -1 11 18 30 72 83 90 68 70 28 28 1 LAND (KM) 1597 1486 1375 1279 1184 1018 883 754 629 563 492 421 328 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 140.5 141.6 142.6 143.5 144.4 146.0 147.3 148.4 149.4 149.8 150.4 151.0 151.9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 599 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 10. 6. 2. 0. -3. -7. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/03/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.20 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.64 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.55 Scaled RI index= 3.46 Prob of RI= 17.6% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.0%)