* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/04/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 55 56 57 56 54 51 47 44 38 29 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 55 56 57 56 54 51 47 44 38 29 SHEAR (KTS) 21 21 20 23 24 26 18 16 20 19 25 37 39 SHEAR DIR 242 251 229 220 226 233 236 248 253 269 259 264 268 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.2 24.3 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 135 135 133 129 127 123 118 112 105 103 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -54.3 -53.9 -54.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 5 5 5 7 5 3 2 2 500-300 MB RH 54 52 54 52 45 38 33 37 44 46 42 45 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 8 3 0 -9 1 1 -3 6 7 18 7 5 850 MB VORT 21 13 29 50 20 23 -9 -48 -57 -24 -31 -62 -73 LAND (KM) 996 1064 1138 1210 1230 1240 1261 1267 1227 1155 935 858 895 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.7 32.1 32.4 32.7 33.2 33.6 34.1 34.9 36.3 38.5 40.0 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 66.4 65.4 64.3 63.3 62.3 60.0 58.4 57.2 56.0 53.8 50.5 47.8 45.5 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 12 13 12 8 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 682 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 60 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. -11. -19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -12. -21. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/04/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 84.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.38 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.06 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 3.51 Prob of RI= 5.8% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)