* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/04/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 40 47 52 58 61 62 65 66 65 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 40 47 52 58 61 62 65 66 65 SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 11 6 5 3 6 4 2 9 3 4 7 SHEAR DIR 28 20 44 73 73 34 108 19 336 319 134 334 183 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 139 135 134 133 135 137 137 138 138 139 139 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -51.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 500-300 MB RH 62 58 57 56 59 55 59 59 55 55 57 58 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 -2 1 0 -1 0 -3 850 MB VORT 61 49 44 41 46 70 63 69 66 65 64 61 63 LAND (KM) 1304 1416 1529 1659 1790 1858 1720 1575 1489 1431 1440 1495 1569 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.8 16.7 17.9 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 29.3 30.4 31.5 32.8 34.0 36.7 39.3 41.7 43.6 45.4 46.8 48.2 49.4 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 11 12 12 11 18 26 29 29 35 35 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 630 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 116 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 25. 31. 36. 38. 41. 43. 42. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 11. 15. 22. 27. 33. 36. 37. 40. 41. 40. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/04/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.83 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 113.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.82 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.71 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.48 Scaled RI index= 5.09 Prob of RI= 39.9% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)