* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * ONE 08/04/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 36 36 35 31 28 26 25 23 21 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 36 36 35 31 28 26 25 23 21 SHEAR (KTS) 14 17 17 13 15 24 26 28 24 25 30 31 27 SHEAR DIR 284 295 298 289 269 270 263 263 262 266 263 260 245 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 125 124 122 124 126 127 127 128 130 132 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 500-300 MB RH 37 40 41 42 43 49 47 48 45 38 29 25 24 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -3 0 0 0 -2 11 0 10 -15 -3 12 3 850 MB VORT 5 27 35 44 63 73 70 70 64 59 45 44 12 LAND (KM) 1525 1421 1317 1218 1120 946 795 631 471 329 293 393 593 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 141.1 142.1 143.1 144.1 145.0 146.7 148.3 150.1 152.0 154.1 156.1 158.3 160.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 480 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 6. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ONE 8/04/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.13 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.42 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 3.05 Prob of RI= 10.1% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.0%)