* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/04/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 54 55 54 52 50 48 46 41 34 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 53 54 55 54 52 50 48 46 41 34 SHEAR (KTS) 20 19 20 22 23 17 14 16 24 12 24 23 29 SHEAR DIR 256 243 221 228 232 237 260 274 280 292 257 254 251 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.6 25.0 24.0 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 135 134 132 128 125 121 115 110 103 98 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 500-300 MB RH 52 53 52 43 37 36 35 41 46 48 43 45 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 0 1 -3 0 0 -1 0 0 -5 14 8 17 850 MB VORT 14 26 44 32 27 31 -30 -43 -60 11 3 4 -13 LAND (KM) 1094 1171 1214 1233 1239 1280 1267 1255 1226 1081 896 874 985 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.2 32.6 32.8 33.0 33.2 33.9 34.6 35.5 37.0 39.1 40.5 41.5 LONG(DEG W) 65.0 63.9 62.8 61.8 60.7 58.9 57.6 56.1 54.3 52.0 49.4 46.4 43.1 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 12 11 10 6 8 3 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 70/ 12 CX,CY: 11/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 617 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 38 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. 0. -3. -8. -14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -9. -16. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/04/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.54 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 84.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.31 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.16 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 3.49 Prob of RI= 5.5% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)