* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/04/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 37 41 48 54 60 63 64 66 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 37 41 48 54 60 63 64 66 68 68 SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 10 7 5 5 0 6 13 4 6 3 7 SHEAR DIR 32 35 73 68 67 79 87 317 283 5 225 106 186 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.4 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 135 134 134 135 135 137 138 141 148 152 154 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -51.5 -52.5 -53.0 -51.9 -52.7 -51.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 500-300 MB RH 62 58 55 53 55 58 57 52 49 48 48 39 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 1 0 0 0 -2 2 0 3 2 0 0 850 MB VORT 40 37 43 45 43 51 67 74 79 56 75 78 76 LAND (KM) 1529 1647 1765 1847 1845 1791 1624 1507 1422 1358 1297 1166 1054 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.6 33.7 34.8 35.9 38.2 40.8 43.2 45.4 47.7 50.3 52.5 54.5 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 13 11 11 15 23 32 29 43 71 84 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 542 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 105 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 22. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 19. 26. 32. 37. 39. 42. 45. 45. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 12. 16. 23. 29. 35. 38. 39. 41. 43. 43. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/04/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.85 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.76 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.75 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 5.16 Prob of RI= 42.0% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)