* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * ONE 08/04/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 29 27 25 20 17 17 17 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 29 27 25 20 17 17 17 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 17 16 15 15 20 29 31 32 25 25 28 30 35 SHEAR DIR 277 285 284 272 265 274 272 280 281 274 258 239 233 SST (C) 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 124 123 123 122 124 126 127 127 128 130 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 10 500-300 MB RH 40 41 45 43 45 39 50 47 42 37 30 29 23 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 7 4 0 0 6 13 0 -7 -4 0 5 850 MB VORT 25 46 58 82 93 71 48 18 22 -2 8 15 25 LAND (KM) 1475 1370 1265 1161 1058 883 744 590 437 325 325 491 731 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.2 15.9 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.6 143.5 144.5 145.5 147.3 148.8 150.6 152.7 154.7 156.8 159.1 161.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 471 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 45 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -5. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -5. -8. -8. -8. -9. -12. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ONE 8/04/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.03 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.62 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.40 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 2.34 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)