* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/04/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 54 55 56 54 51 48 46 44 40 36 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 54 55 56 54 51 48 46 44 40 36 SHEAR (KTS) 22 20 21 24 21 11 14 18 22 19 28 30 34 SHEAR DIR 251 225 225 230 236 225 254 261 272 264 262 251 254 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.3 24.7 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 137 135 133 131 126 121 117 113 108 104 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 2 500-300 MB RH 53 50 43 33 35 30 32 38 45 49 52 46 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -8 -7 0 6 0 0 0 13 18 20 26 21 850 MB VORT 21 27 18 7 16 -18 -50 -53 -37 0 16 27 36 LAND (KM) 1181 1264 1290 1289 1292 1305 1311 1276 1214 1100 984 924 900 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.1 32.3 32.5 32.7 33.0 33.5 34.4 35.5 36.8 38.1 39.3 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 63.9 62.8 61.6 60.8 60.0 58.8 57.5 56.1 54.6 52.6 50.2 47.9 45.9 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 12 11 7 11 4 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 70/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 669 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/04/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.52 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 87.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.55 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.72 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 3.85 Prob of RI= 9.9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)