* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 08/04/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 42 48 54 58 59 60 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 42 48 54 58 59 60 59 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 11 11 9 8 6 4 9 9 16 15 13 SHEAR DIR 45 64 56 42 39 38 347 341 314 235 280 228 258 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 137 137 138 138 135 134 133 133 138 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -51.8 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 500-300 MB RH 59 56 60 64 61 63 60 67 63 65 58 51 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 6 8 8 850 MB VORT 37 33 34 32 35 30 51 69 80 86 63 73 73 LAND (KM) 1665 1744 1817 1793 1773 1766 1701 1647 1600 1581 1585 1620 1495 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.8 13.6 14.5 15.6 16.9 18.1 19.4 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 32.7 33.5 34.2 35.0 35.8 37.5 39.1 40.6 42.6 44.6 46.7 48.8 51.1 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 13 12 13 16 19 21 26 27 23 31 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 517 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 90 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 23. 29. 33. 34. 35. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 23. 29. 33. 34. 35. 34. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/04/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.55 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)