* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * ONE 08/04/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 27 26 26 26 29 30 29 26 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 27 26 26 26 29 30 29 26 SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 15 17 25 26 27 19 20 23 23 29 34 SHEAR DIR 273 285 272 257 266 272 281 282 280 252 246 238 246 SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 126 125 123 126 128 128 130 131 133 136 139 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 8 9 10 10 11 500-300 MB RH 44 46 48 50 46 40 39 29 21 21 22 24 24 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 4 2 0 -5 8 0 -1 -1 16 -2 0 11 850 MB VORT 26 45 65 82 74 65 68 58 52 8 -10 -34 -30 LAND (KM) 1393 1288 1183 1064 947 724 528 387 438 629 862 1040 1225 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.2 14.8 14.4 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 142.5 143.5 144.5 145.7 146.9 149.4 152.1 154.8 157.5 160.2 163.0 165.6 168.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 580 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 35 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 4. 1. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ONE 8/04/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.01 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.64 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.44 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 2.40 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)