* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/04/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 59 59 58 55 53 51 47 42 37 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 59 59 58 55 53 51 47 42 37 SHEAR (KTS) 18 20 19 16 10 9 13 19 14 21 24 29 31 SHEAR DIR 227 217 226 233 229 246 268 273 287 278 251 259 256 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.6 24.9 23.9 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 134 133 131 128 124 119 115 110 102 97 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.9 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 4 2 2 500-300 MB RH 47 40 36 34 33 27 38 44 48 41 39 47 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 2 4 1 -4 -4 0 10 15 21 29 17 850 MB VORT 28 15 7 20 15 -29 -47 -57 -16 2 30 25 16 LAND (KM) 1262 1280 1293 1304 1321 1334 1316 1263 1211 1050 888 861 977 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.5 32.6 32.8 33.0 33.5 34.0 34.8 35.8 37.3 39.2 40.7 41.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.4 61.4 60.3 59.4 58.4 57.0 56.2 55.2 53.7 51.7 49.3 46.3 42.9 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 9 9 11 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 75/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 626 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 25 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -14. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -3. -6. -12. -17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/04/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 80.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.49 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 58.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.05 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.57 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 3.57 Prob of RI= 6.5% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)