* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/04/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 39 46 53 60 66 70 74 76 76 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 39 46 53 60 66 70 74 76 76 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 3 4 6 4 5 5 2 6 4 8 14 SHEAR DIR 86 88 84 74 86 132 65 258 40 224 111 201 181 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 137 138 139 139 139 141 146 151 154 154 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 500-300 MB RH 54 53 57 52 54 56 48 44 44 44 45 44 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 1 0 4 -2 2 1 2 -1 0 2 0 850 MB VORT 58 57 53 50 43 59 68 79 73 86 90 86 100 LAND (KM) 1798 1818 1800 1800 1732 1569 1450 1373 1337 1305 1187 1080 899 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.6 18.6 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 35.2 36.4 37.5 38.5 40.9 43.4 45.6 47.5 49.8 52.5 55.0 57.3 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 13 14 17 26 29 28 43 65 81 64 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 444 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 88 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 25. 33. 40. 46. 50. 53. 53. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 14. 21. 28. 35. 41. 45. 49. 51. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/04/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.53 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 111.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.77 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.77 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.70 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.76 Scaled RI index= 5.15 Prob of RI= 41.8% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)