* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * ONE 08/04/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 33 35 37 40 39 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 33 35 37 40 39 37 SHEAR (KTS) 14 14 18 21 24 25 25 20 22 23 23 28 30 SHEAR DIR 285 273 271 271 276 268 284 281 263 252 251 251 257 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 125 124 125 128 128 129 131 132 136 138 142 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 10 500-300 MB RH 47 44 46 44 40 38 28 25 23 23 23 26 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 2 -1 -4 -3 5 -9 4 2 0 2 -5 850 MB VORT 42 60 67 64 60 76 66 60 25 11 -15 -28 -32 LAND (KM) 1245 1139 1033 922 814 609 438 424 566 796 986 1189 1387 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 14.8 14.4 14.0 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 144.0 145.1 146.1 147.3 148.5 151.1 153.9 156.6 159.2 161.9 164.7 167.3 169.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 729 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 8 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 14. 12. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ONE 8/04/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.65 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.77 Scaled RI index= 2.54 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)