* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/05/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 54 54 53 50 50 50 45 40 35 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 54 54 53 50 50 50 45 40 35 SHEAR (KTS) 20 21 20 15 11 11 18 19 18 25 28 28 25 SHEAR DIR 211 228 235 244 248 268 272 285 270 260 243 245 250 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.0 25.6 24.6 23.4 23.0 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 135 133 131 127 125 119 115 107 99 97 90 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.8 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 7 7 6 3 3 1 1 500-300 MB RH 36 33 33 30 28 33 43 48 43 44 41 41 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 2 6 1 2 -5 8 13 6 14 9 -10 850 MB VORT 13 10 14 14 -10 -56 -70 -59 -21 13 7 10 -10 LAND (KM) 1298 1318 1343 1334 1329 1309 1291 1200 983 827 795 832 933 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.6 32.7 33.1 33.5 34.2 34.6 35.9 37.9 39.7 41.0 42.3 43.5 LONG(DEG W) 60.5 59.6 58.6 57.9 57.1 55.7 55.0 53.7 51.8 49.6 47.1 44.6 42.1 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 11 11 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 75/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 476 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -14. -19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -10. -15. -20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/05/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 79.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.48 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 58.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.04 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.52 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 28.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.31 Scaled RI index= 3.19 Prob of RI= 3.7% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)